ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050 (2025)

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The Global Outlook is ExxonMobil’s view of energy demand and supply through 2050. In 2050, the world will be different—vastly different. 10 billion people by 2050 15% increase in energy use 25% decline in emissions by 2050 >50% of energy demand still met by oil and natural gas Want the highlights? References

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The Global Outlook is ExxonMobil’s view of energy demand and supply through 2050.

A foundation of our business plan, the analysis is based on a long-termassessment of:

Economic trends
Advances in technology
Consumer behavior
Climate-related public policy

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Key takeaways

1.	All energy types will remain in the mix.
2.	Renewables will grow the fastest.
3.	Coal will decline the most.
4.	Under any credible scenario, oil and natural gas remain essential.
5.	Lower-carbon technology needs policy support to grow rapidly but ultimately must be supported by market forces.
	Download the 2024 Executive Summary

In 2050, the world will be different—vastly different.

To meet critical needs, the world will need to increase access to reliable, affordable energy from a broad set of solutions.

10 billion people by 2050

The population will increase at a rate of 1 million people every six days.

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15% increase in energy use

All of that growth will go toward raising living standards in the developing world.

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25% decline in emissions by 2050

By 2030, carbon emissions are projected to fall for the first time.

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>4x increase of solar and wind in the total energy mix

Rapid growth in wind and solar will spur the biggest changes to the energy landscape.

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>50% of energy demand still met by oil and natural gas

Oil and natural gas will remain an essential part of the global energy mix.

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Energy demand drivers

Affordable and reliable energy fuels economic development and modern living standards.
Large energy disparity still exists between developed and developing countries.
Growing energy consumption supports economic expansion, enabling longer, more productive lives for the growing global population.

Global Outlook

Report •

2 min read

• Aug. 26, 2024

Energy transition progress

By 2030, carbon emissions are projected to fall for the first time as economic activity expands.
Hard-to-decarbonize commercial transportation and industrial activity will account for nearly half of the world’s emissions in 2050.
Reducing emissions to achieve a below 2°C pathway will require supportive policy, technology innovation, and market incentives to drive faster deployment of all available solutions.

Global Outlook

Report •

4 min read

• Aug. 26, 2024

Energy mix projections

Oil and natural gas remain the largest energy sources.
Electricity use grows in all sectors, with generation from solar and wind growing the fastest.
Coal is displaced by lower-emission sources, including both renewables and natural gas.
Commercial transportation and industrial feedstocks drive continued demand for oil.

Global Outlook

Report •

2 min read

• Aug. 26, 2024

Energy demand trends

By 2050, growing population and rising prosperity in developing nations drives:

Global electricity demand to nearly double.
Energy demand for transportation to grow by more than 20%.
Energy demand for industry to grow by 20%.

Global Outlook

Report •

4 min read

• Aug. 26, 2024

Cautionary statement

The Global Outlook includes Exxon Mobil Corporation’s internal estimates of both historical levels and projections of challenging topics such as energy demand, supply, and trends through 2050 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from many external sources including the International Energy Agency. Separate from ExxonMobil’s analysis, we discuss a number of third-party scenarios such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Likely Below 2°C and the International Energy Agency scenarios. Third-party scenarios discussed in this report reflect the modeling assumptions and outputs of their respective authors, not ExxonMobil, and their use and inclusion herein is not an endorsement by ExxonMobil of their results, likelihood or probability. Work on the Outlook and report was conducted during 2023 and 2024. The report contains forward looking statements, including projections, targets, expectations, estimates and assumptions of future behaviors. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the growth of energy demand and supply, the impact of new technologies, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy, emissions and plans to reduce emissions) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, the ability to scale new technologies on a cost-effective basis, unexpected technological developments, the development of new supply sources, changes in law or government policy, political events, demographic changes and migration patterns, trade patterns, the development and enforcement of global, regional or national mandates, changes in consumer preferences, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading “Factors Affecting Future Results” in the Investors section of our website at www.exxonmobil.com. The Outlook was published in August 2024. ExxonMobil assumes no duty to update these statements or materials as of any future date, and neither future distribution of this material nor the continued availability of this material in archive form on our website should be deemed to constitute an update or re-affirmation of this material as of any future date. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.